6.19每日一篇|英语外刊社

Climate change：Mercury rising

The world is likely tobreachits1.5°C climate target before2028

(资料图片仅供参考)

【1】IN2015, in Paris, the nations of the worldcommittedthemselves to trying their best topreventthe planet warming by more than1.5°C from its pre-industrialstate. Even at the time, the goal looked ambitious. In recent years, it has come to seem almost impossible.

【2】On May17th the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), an arm of the United Nations, added to the gloom. It said there was a66% chance that the world would exceed the1.5°Cthresholdin at least one of the next five years. That is a big jump from itsestimatesof even a year ago, when the WMO assessed thelikelihoodat48%. Even if the1.5°C target is notbreached, the WMO thinks it isvirtuallycertainthat one of the coming five years will be thehottestin human history. (That record is now held by2016, which was1.28°C warmer than the pre-industrialaverage.)

【3】Optimists point out even if the1.5°Cthresholdisbreachedin the coming half-decade, temperatures will likely fall back again, at least for a while. The Paris agreement would not,technicallybebreached. (That would requireexceeding1.5°C for several years.) Over the next few years the growing level of human-driven warming will beamplifiedfurther by natural, buttransient, changes.

【4】The biggest of thosevariationsis the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural cycle of warming and cooling in the waters of the eastern Pacific ocean that haswidespreadeffects on the climate. The world has just seen threeconsecutive“La Niña” years, the name given to thecoolerphaseof the cycle, helping hold global temperatures down. It now seems almostcertainthat a warmer “El Niño”phasewill beginsometimelater this year, setting up2024to be ascorcher. (One reason for the2016record is that the yearcoincidedwith an especially strong El Niño.)

【5】But the ENSO is not the only factor. An additionaltemporarynudgecould come from theeruptionlast year of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apaivolcano, near Tonga. It was one of the biggest eruptions since that of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in the1990s, andinjectedanestimated146m tonnes of watervapourinto thestratosphere. Watervapour, like carbon dioxide, is a greenhouse gas. Unlike carbon dioxide, it willgraduallyfall out of thestratosphereover the next few years. But Stuart Jenkins, a climatologist at Oxford University, reckons that while itpersistsit could increase the odds of passing1.5°C by a few percentage points.

【6】Sometentativelyencouragingsignsgleamamid the gloom. Globalemissionsof greenhouse gases fromfossilfuelsseem to have gonesidewaysfor several years, leading some researchers to speakcautiouslyof a possible peak. Rystad Energy, a Norwegian think-tank,predictedearlier this year that globalemissionsof carbon dioxide from industry could peak in2025and then begin a slow decline.

【7】Even so, the world’s actions still fall far short of its promises. Even the upper end of the goals agreed in Paris—of limiting warming to “well below2°C”—will beachievableonly withdrasticaction. “For Europe and America to meet theircommitments, for instance, would require them toswitchoff all theirfossil-fired power plants within the next three decades.

【8】And simply stoppingemissionswill not be enough. Somewhere between3.5bn and5.4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide will need to besuckedout of theatmosphereevery year, rising to4.7bn to9.8bn tonnes within30years. All that is a big ask, to put itmildly. But theoptimist’s take might be that thepsychologicalimpact of breaching the1.5°C goal, even if onlytemporarily, could help focus minds.

1、短语

1）原文：Optimists point outeven if the 1.5°C threshold is breached in the coming half-decade, temperatures will likely fall back again, at least for a while.

词典：point out指出

例句：I should point out that these estimates cover just the hospital expenditures.

我应该指出，这些估价只包括医院的开支。

2）原文：One reason for the 2016 record is that the year coincided withan especially strong El Niño.

词典：coincide with 与......同时发生

例句：The strike was timed to coincide with the party conference.

那次罢工选择在召开政党大会的同一时间举行。

3）原文：Global emissions of greenhouse gases from fossil fuels seem to have gone sidewaysfor several years, leading some researchers to speak cautiously of a possible peak..

词典：go sideways情况恶化

例句：Anything goes sideways, it is on you.

出任何事情，你担着。

4）原文：For Europe and America to meet their commitments, for instance, would require them to switch offall their fossil-fired power plants within the next three decades.

词典：switch off 关闭

例句：The main thing to remember is to switch off the burglar alarm.

最要紧的是记住关掉防盗报警器的开关。

2、长难句

1、

1）原文：

Even if the 1.5℃target is not breached, the WMO thinks it is virtually certainthat one of the coming five years will be the hottest in human history.

2）分析：

l红色部分是主句，是主谓宾结构，其中宾语为that引导的宾语从句，that省略，绿色部分就是宾语从句的内容，做thinks的宾语，其中it是形式主语。

l蓝色部分是that引导的主语从句，相当于it的内容

l紫色部分是even if 引导的让步状语从句。

3）译文：即使升温没有超过1.5℃，WMO认为，几乎可以肯定的是未来五年内将会出现人类历史上最热的一年。

2、

1）原文：It now seems almost certain that a warmer “El Niño” phase will begin sometime later this year, setting up 2024to be a scorcher.

2）分析：

l红色部分是主句，是主系表结构，其中it是形式主句。蓝色部分是that引导的主语从句，是真正主语。

l紫色部分是现在分词短语做结果状语，其中宾语是2024。绿色部分是不定式做宾语补足语，修饰宾语2024。

3）译文：现在看来几乎可以肯定的是今年晚些时候将会出现海水变暖的“厄尔尼诺”阶段，这也说明，2024年会是炎热的一年。

3、写作技巧

1）原文：

It said there was a 66% chancethatthe world would exceed the 1.5°C threshold in at least one of the next five years.

WMO称，未来五年，全球气温升幅有66%的可能性会超过1.5℃。

Even if the 1.5°C target is not breached, the WMO thinks it is virtually certain that one of the coming five years will be the hottest in human history.

即使升温没有超过1.5℃，WMO认为，几乎可以肯定的是未来五年内将会出现人类历史上最热的一年。

One reason for the 2016 record is thatthe year coincided with an especially strong El Niño.

2016年出现最高温的原因之一就是当年恰逢一次特别强烈的厄尔尼诺现象。

But Stuart Jenkins, a climatologist at Oxford University, reckons that while it persists it could increase the odds of passing 1.5°C by a few percentage points.

但是牛津大学的气候学家斯图尔特·詹金斯(Stuart Jenkins)认为，如果火山爆发的影响持续存在，那么很可能会使升温超过1.5°C的几率增加几个百分点。

2）技巧分析：

文中多次出现了that从句，主要有例句中给出的四种用法，以上四个例句中that分别引导定语从句、主语从句、表语从句和宾语从句：

l定语从句

Mike"s parents made a special promise to Tom that surprised Tom．

迈克的父母对汤姆许下了一个特别的诺言，这使得汤姆很惊奇。

这里that引导的定语从句是对先行词promise的修饰和限制

l主语从句

That he likes books of this kind is very interesting.= It’s very interesting thathe likes books of this kind。

有趣的是，他很喜欢这种书。

l表语从句

The trouble is that I have lost his address. 麻烦的是我把他的地址丢了。

that引导表语从句时，that不可省略。

l宾语从句

Everybody could see what happened and that Tom was frightened

大家都会看出发生的事情并知道Tom非常害怕。

and连接两个宾语从句，that宾语从句放在and的后面时，that不能省略。

4、背景分析

5月17日，世界气象组织（WMO）发布最新报告称，未来五年内全球气温将持续升高，很可能突破《巴黎气候协定》中设定的全球升温关键指标之一——1.5摄氏度的阈值。报告指出，在2023年到2027年之间，全球气温至少在其中一年升至比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度的可能性达到66%。与此同时，未来五年中至少一年创下有记录以来最高温年份的可能性高达98%。1.5摄氏度是《巴黎气候协定》关于气候变化设定的较低目标水平。近些年来，当我们越来越接近这个升温水平时，我们已经看到气候变化带来的许多负面影响。例如，更多的极端高温和极端降雨——正如我们去年在欧洲、中国等地区看到的那样，我们还看到冰川和海冰融化、海平面上升、海洋变暖和酸化。

对于未来五年全球升温可能会突破1.5摄氏度的预测，主要原因是，拉尼娜现象于2023年3月结束，我们预计未来几个月将出现厄尔尼诺现象（El Niño，指的是赤道太平洋东部和中部海面温度出现显著增温的现象），这将与人类活动引发的气候变化相结合，将全球气温推向未知的领域。国际社会需要采取更加协调一致的气候变化缓解措施，一方面加大减排行动，另一方面为气候变化适应提供更多的支持，以降低气候变化对人类生命健康的损害。

段落大意：

【1】近年看来，1.5℃的温控目标几乎不可能实现。

【2】世界气象组织称未来五年，全球气温升幅有66%的可能性会超过1.5℃，并且未来五年内将会出现人类历史上最热的一年。

【3】乐观人士认为即使未来五年内升温突破了1.5°C，气温也可能再次回落。

【4】通过分析厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象，2024年会是炎热的一年。

【5】全球气候变化还受到火山爆发的影响。

【6】挪威智库预测，全球工业二氧化碳排放量可能在2025年达到峰值。

【7】即使是《巴黎协定》最低的目标也需要采取极有力的行动才能实现。

【8】仅仅停止排放温室气体并不够，并且难以做到。

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